The Shergar Cup – Your cup of tea?
Earl Grey, Darjeeling, Yorkshire, Green or perhaps the Shergar Cup just isn’t your cup of tea after all?
Many punters I know give it the widest of berths and personally I’m not keen on the format that’s as shoehorned as shoving a round peg into a square hole.
Racing, after all, is not really a team sport and that’s the whole premise of the Shergar Cup.
It does however draw big crowds to Ascot and it has been going in various formats since the year 2000. I would have been a seller at two years on the Survival Index so am clearly in no position to talk about whether it is a success or not.
But for most punters it remains a Marmite event.
Spreads and Marmite (did you see whatI did there?) can go together and help make a profit. Simply because in novelty events other factors come into play which can give the Star Spreads player an angle in.
I am particularly keen on this afternoon’s distances lines (I say ‘afternoon’, only just, it’s a 12.55pm start at Ascot).
The temptation is to go low on distances but I think that might be misguided.
Six tightly knit handicaps with minimum field sizes of 10 should produce six tight finishes right ? Wrong, I say.
Let’s look at the evidence for the last three years…
Last year’s meeting was a layers paradise with a make-up of just 2.9 lengths yet the previous two years pushed 10.
The average winning distance per race over three years is 1.22 which, if accurate today, would produce a make-up of 7.35.
My preferred angle in is to go long. I think the market will over compensate for last year and I think buying will generally give you a more relaxed ride. The market expects close finishes but you will always have the possibility of a daft result here – by daft I mean a long winning margin either through a horse that turns out to be well handicapped, or, more likely jockey inexperience.
Whilst we are dealing with the world’s top jockeys we are also dealing with inexperience around Ascot.
I’m expecting 10 lengths or more today and betting accordingly. Then it’s time to ‘enjoy’ the Shergar Cup, with a cup of tea naturally.
Buy distances at anything 10 or under