Maybe? Maybe Not!
In my latest betting blog I seek out some value by going against another Aidan O’Brien hotpot in the 1000 Guineas, which is run this coming Sunday at Newmarket.
Unbeaten in five career starts, Maybe cemented her position as Guineas favourite when she wound up an impressive two-year-old campaign by landing the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh. She is currently priced up at around 6/4 which would suggest that her level of form is in a different parish to her rivals but on closer inspection it is easy to pick holes in her form.
The filly she beat at the Curragh, Fire Lily, was beaten just as convincingly in the Lowther and then the Marcel Boussac. My conclusion is tha,t on the whole, her latter season Group wins came in races with very little strength in depth, meaning at her current odds she makes no appeal.
Mahmood Al Zarooni holds a strong hand in this year’s renewal where he will be doubly represented by Discourse and Lyric Of Light, both unbeaten fillies with big futures. Discourse in particular looks a very exciting prospect for this season, but at around 6/1 there isn’t much juice left in her price.
Moonstone Magic has been supplemented for the race on the back of an easy win at Newbury this month. Conditions that day were very testing, however, and with a dry spell in the run up to the race being forecast, this confirmed mud-lark makes limited appeal at her current cramped odds.
The French raider Mashoora has done little wrong and won’t lack for experience, but I have major doubts as to whether she possesses the class to triumph in what is shaping up to be a very competitive renewal.
Intriguingly, The Fugue looks likely to take her chance for John Gosden. This is a filly I am very keen on but I have her down as more of a middle distance filly for later in the season; that said, she did show enough speed to land a 7 furlong maiden on her only start and, at, 25/1 I wouldn’t put anyone off.
The two fillies who will be carrying The Judge’s hopes and cash are Diala and Gray Pearl.
Gray Pearl probably achieved more than was hoped as a juvenile given her size and scope; indeed it is almost impossible not to expect considerable improvement from her this season now that she has reportedly grown well by trainer Charles Hills. A strongly-run mile over the wide open spaces of Newmarket will really suit this out-and-out galloper well, and at 25/1 she must be backed.
Diala finished runner-up to Lyric Of Light on her debut, where she travelled like much the best filly only to find the gaps close when looking for room inside the final two furlongs. She made amends on her second start when sluicing home by 4 lengths in a very fast time. She displayed a tremendous turn of foot to settle matters quickly after travelling with consummate ease, both attributes which will stand her in good stead for the stern test that awaits.
The fact that she doesn’t have juvenile group race form to her name isn’t a negative, given that two of the last three winners hadn’t either and, indeed, this is my angle into the race. To my mind, last season’s group race form is suspect, so I will side with the ‘unexposed’. William Haggas trained the Oaks winner last season and I think Diala can add another filly’s classic to his CV this Sunday.
The Judge’s Big Bets
3pt EW Diala 16/1
1pt EW Gray Pearl 25/1
