Don't Jump On The Derby Bandwagon!

With the Epsom Derby coming up this weekend, it’s worth looking at some of the runners and trying to find some value amidst the pitiful 4/7 that you’ll be offered by the firms about Camelot.

The David Lanigan-trained Main Sequence (tipped up by our expert The Judge) is being well-backed, even into 8/1 with some firms now, but much of the talk is surrounding Bonfire, the Balding-trained bay that booked his place in the Derby thanks to a dazzling performance in the Dante Stakes at York. He’s 9/2 generally but I’d expect him to go off at 4’s or maybe even 7/2 if people keep jumping on the bandwagon.

Astrology at 8/1 offers no value whatsoever for me. He hacked up in his last start at Chester earlier in the month, winning by 11 lengths over 1m2f, but for me he beat an unimpressive field. Don’t get me wrong, it was a great ride by O’ Brien, but I think people are too quick to forget about his performances at Newmarket and the Curragh last year where he was very disappointing. With JP O’ Brien opting to ride Camelot, and Ryan Moore taking the reigns for his first ride on the horse, for me, Astrology is a lay.

There’s no doubt that Camelot is probably going to win this race, but this blog is about getting some nice each-way value.

So, here’s my pick…

Cavaleiro – trained by Marcus Tregoning, he is not getting a mention in the build-up to the Derby, and that suits someone who’s thinking outside the box when sniffing out some value. To be fair, this is a 9-horse race, and no horse should be too big a price. But the fact that Camelot is being backed off the board, and anything that was 10/1 or smaller is now starting to shorten as the money comes in, horses like Cavaleiro are still a huge price. He’s 50/1 generally, but you can get 66/1 with some of the firms, that’s great value for a horse that has came 2nd or better in 3 of his last 4 races, with solid wins at Chepstow and Newbury last August and September respectively.

I’d advise you to not jump on the bandwagon. Remember, you’ll need to stake a hell of a lot more on Camelot to get the same kind of returns that Cavaleiro could earn you if it places.!