The Fugue To Hit Perfect Note in Oaks
In my latest blog I take a look at The Investec Oaks which is held this coming Friday at Epsom.
Typically, Aidan O’Brien holds a strong hand with no less than six of the fourteen remaining entries belonging to Ballydoyle. Of these, the 1000 Guineas 3rd Maybe is most fancied and she heads the market at around 5/2 currently but I view that as a very short price for a filly who has not raced beyond a mile and isn’t certain to improve for the extra distance on breeding either.
Of O’Briens other contenders, the two I can see outrunning their respective odds are Was, who will surely come on a ton for her reappearance run at Gowran Park and Betterbetterbetter who follows the same path as O’Brien’s 2006 winner Alexandrova having used the Cheshire Oaks as her prep for this. She ran a cracker that day only to be nosed out of it close home by a big outsider and massive improvement is on the cards considering she only made her debut in late March. Intriguingly all three daughters of her Dam ‘Jude’ who have contested the Oaks have made the frame and at a generous 40/1 I will have a small each way investment.
Kissed has two facile wins to her name but needs to prove she can act on much faster ground here and her pronounced high knee action signals enough doubt in my mind to rule her out on this occasion.
Vow, trained by William Haggas, quickened up in the style of a very smart filly to land the Oaks Trial at Lingfield and whilst she again showed signs of inexperience, which could cost her dearly in the melting pot that is a classic, I am greatly respecting her chance as I believe she is potentially the most talented horse in the field.
Godolphin rely on impressive Pretty Polly Stakes winner Kailani whose chances would surely be greater if encountering softer conditions, being a daughter of Monsun. The overall form of Godolphin’s classic generation is also a major negative.
Hugh Morrison’s Shirocco Star is definitely worth her place in the line-up following a cracking effort when runner-up at Newbury on her comeback run. She travelled sweetly for a long way that day and looks sure to improve for the extra distance. It is also worth noting that last season’s Oaks heroine Dancing Rain had finished placed in that same Newbury race prior to winning at Epsom.
My main selection for the race is John Gosden’s The Fugue. Regular readers of my blog will have noted I have always been a fan having included her in my ten to follow for the season. On her reappearance she ran a cracker to finish 4th in the 1000 Guineas having got well behind at halfway but this filly was always going to improve when racing over middle distances and she showed her true colours when coasting to victory in the Musidora at York. The Fugue oozed class that day and I fully expect her to come home in front.
The Judge’s Big Bets
3pt WIN The Fugue 3/1
0.5pt EW Betterbetterbetter 40/1
