Skipper's Euro Thoughts 4

Specials are not usually my forte but in this blog I will be taking a quick look at a few and also be trying to give some advice on how to approach betting on the Euros.

England Specials

Wayne Rooney to be England top goalscorer still looks like a bet at 6/1 for me. Yes I know he misses the first two games against France and Sweden but how many goals do we actually think England will muster up in these games?

The most likely outcome will be another player or two will be on 1 goal when Wayne returns. The third game is also in my opinion there easiest game of the group stage and I can see Rooney coming in and making an immediate impact.

So we are really getting 6/1 Rooney Top England goalscorer -1 goal. Yes please… That’s a bet the skipper will be having!

Italy Specials

I will be backing Italy at 5/4 not to qualify as I just do not see them as a contender at all this year. They are still resting on laurels of past glory and are not the team they used to be. Also no Italy goal scorer at 40/1 looks like a bit of value. If I am right and they only play 3 games then it is a very strong possibility of no goals being scored.

Total Goals

Three teams I am looking to get with in the total goals scored market are Holland, Portugal and, yes you guessed it, Sweden. These three teams are coming into the competition all in the top four highest scorers in qualification for the tournament. Holland at 1/1 to score 6 or more goals in the competition looks a decent bet as I expect them to go far and with the likes of R.V.P and Klaas Jan Huntelaar up front I fully expect them top get the job done.

Portugal to score over 4.5 goals at 1/1 also looks a bit of value as I expect them to qualify and have a few more games than the betting suggests. Sweden to score more than 3.5 goals also looks a great bet, with Ibrahimovic up front, who I will also be backing as the tournament top goalscorer. They are only in for 3.5 goals as they are not expected to qualify from the group but as we have learned in the previous blogs this will hopefully not be the case.

Spreads

Total Red Cards: I will be selling the total red cards at 7.25. There is only 31 games and looking at the stats of past tournaments this is a sell all day long.

Total Yellow Cards: The total yellow cards are quoted at 133-140. This is a sell for me again. This works out at an average of 4.2 yellow cards per game. Looking at the stats and adding in some of my own opinion I just can’t see there being that many…

Fastest Tournament Goal: The fastest tournament goal market interests me too. The quote is 145 seconds – 155 seconds. This is a buy for me. Most of these games will start off cagey with the usual international football period of 5-10 minutes of feeling out the opposition. Yes you will have to sweat it out for 31 games but I think you will be collecting come 2.58 into the final!

Interest Bet

Yes I have had a little nibble on Ireland to win the Euros at 250/1. Let’s hope they can make it through the group and we get the chance to lay it off. There is no down side to having a small wagon bet on your own country in a tournament like this and hopefully all the great value we have scooped up in the other markets will cop and the tiny interest bet will be the last thing on our minds!

Also how sick would I be if Ireland did win and I was the only man in the country who had nothing on them!! Anything can happen…

That’s it for my Euro 2012 blogs; hopefully it all goes according to plan and we come out on top. Enjoy the football and happy punting.

Skipper