Galikova the value play in Arc
Most of the major flat racing summer festivals have been run so now seems an ideal time to try and pinch some ante-post value for the Prix De L’arc De Triomphe run at Longchamp in October.
As a result of his brilliant win in the Juddmonte International over 10 furlongs, Frankel is now being talked about as a possible runner but to my mind I still think he is odds against to line up in Paris and doesn’t really affect my analysis of the race at this point.
Regular readers will know I am a big fan of the John Gosden trained Nathaniel. The Arc looks tailor-made for the 4 year old, with 12 furlongs being his optimum trip and no real prospect of lightning fast ground which he dislikes, and I find it very difficult to see him not reaching the frame. Currently trading at around 7/1 I can’t see him being much shorter come post time so at this stage I will just wait for a potential day of race play.
The Derby winner Camelot is currently heading the market at around 5/2 but I think that price seriously overestimates his chances. The 3 year old middle distance division is distinctly average and whilst I respect the fact that Camelot is far superior than any other of the classic generation I do think this is a classic case of him being the best of a bad bunch, At his odds he makes no appeal whatsoever in what will be by far his toughest test.
The one I really like at a big price is the 4 year old filly Galikova. She started a 7/1 chance in last year’s renewal off the back of a very impressive campaign where she did nothing but improve with time and a step up to 12 furlongs. I have a strong feeling that the Arc was just one race too many as she could never land a blow in the straight and eventually finished a disappointing 9th. This season her campaign has been much lighter with only 2 starts so far which strongly suggests Galikova has been trained with this race in mind all season by Freddie Head.
On her latest start, over an inadequate 10 furlongs, she became outpaced as the leaders quickened before staying on again in the last half furlong and gave me a lot of confidence that she will be cherry ripe at Longchamp especially given the extra 2 furlongs of the Arc. 33/1 looks a massive price about this very talented filly and it is worth remembering that in June on her seasonal debut she finished in front of last season’s Arc heroine Danedream who is trading around 7/1.
In simple terms Galikova should be nearer 10/1 than 33s so get on as I rate her massive each way value.
Judge’s Advice
Galikova 2pts EW @33/1 (Arc De Triomphe)
