Liverpool v Man City Preview

This game was a rare Premier League football match that I circled as soon as the first week of the Premier League finished.

As you are no doubt aware, Liverpool were crushed 3-0 at Swansea in their opening fixture whilst the champions from the blue half of Manchester dusted off the cobwebs, eventually edging out Southampton in a five goal thriller at Eastlands.

My value radar immediately sniffed out the chance to get with Liverpool at home as the market would over react and maybe cause Manchester City to be around the Even money mark or maybe even slight odds on. However, the fact that Sergio Aguero was injured and that City only ultimately squeaked past Southampton unimpressively has not led to the seismic shift in prices that was possible.

In NFL terms, early weak or strong performances can lead to what mega-shrewdies call “National Jump To Conclusions Week” when teams are immediately dismissed or anointed as “for real”. In a rare mistake the market makers may be guilty of not marking down Liverpool quite enough for this encounter.

It is rare when you have a hunch for a possible bet and then end up “going the other way” but in this case a 1pt lay of Liverpool at 3.1 could pay (small) dividends. The gap between City and Liverpool last year was so huge (37 points in the final table) and it may still take a while for Brendan Rodgers changes to the Liverpool style of play and football philosophy to pay dividends.

Smudgers’s Big Bet

Lay Liverpool 1pt at 3.1