Champions League Preview by Tony

There’s been some confusion about what exactly could happen tonight in our Champions League group. We know all three teams can finish on 12 points, but what happens then?

What if Arsenal draw? What if Napoli win? What if Marseille beat Dortmund. Well, via the UEFA website, here’s how the group could play out.

• Arsenal will clinch qualification, and top spot, with a draw or a victory.

• If Dortmund fail to win, Napoli will advance with a victory – in the event of a three-way head-to-head on 12 points, the two qualifiers will be decided by the precise scorelines between the three teams.

• A draw is only enough for Napoli if Dortmund, who have a superior head-to-head, lose. If Napoli lose they are out.

• Dortmund are through if they win. Should Dortmund draw, they will progress if Napoli do not win. Dortmund can only afford to lose if Napoli are also beaten.

• Marseille will be fourth.

So there you go. Clear as anything.

So with that in mind – let’s have some predictions.

Dortmund go into tonight’s game with a seriously depleted squad. They are 1.3 goal favs on the spreads, and I believe that Marseille will get something from this game. That’s why I’m a seller on Dortmund at 1.2, I smell a draw.

An outcome like that will mean that both Arsenal and Napoli will only need a point each to finish their group 1st and 2nd respectively. It’s a pick’em game on the spreads and I don’t intend on getting with either of them, the draw in this game for me looks like the value. I’m going for one of the more quirky markets in that game on the spreads. I’m backing a 1-1 draw at 10 on the 75-50-25 index. I’m buying at 10, and if the game is 1-1 at half-time, I get 25 points. If the game is 1-1 at full-time I get 50 points, and if the game is 1-1 at the end of both halves I get 75 points.

That’s almost as confusing as the possible group outcomes!

Happy punting guys!

• Any spread prices quoted are indicative and as always prices are subject to fluctuation.
• Please note the opinion, views and forecasts above are of the author and not of Star Spreads.