Man U v Man City (7.45pm, SKY)

In theory….. two dangerous words. Chelsea and Man City are trading as joint favourites for the Premier League title, but which position would you rather be in ???

Chelsea have a four point lead – but Man City have three games in hand – which, in theory, could put them three points clear of Chelsea if they win all of them.

I’d rather be in Chelsea’s position to be honest with the points on the board. No game can be taken for granted and the pressure is always much more on the team chasing.

As Chelsea themselves demonstrated when losing at Villa Park – even the relatively straight forward games can throw up a banana skin to trip up on.

Whilst Old Trafford might not be the fortress it used to be in recent seasons (Liverpool, Tottenham, Everton, Newcastle and West Brom have all won there this season), Man City face a tough task against their arch rivals and neighbours – particularly with less pressure on Man U as at long last they are stringing some good results together.

The Champions League comeback against Olympiakos lifted a massive weight over Man U and probably kept David Moyes in his job and they have since gone on to beat West Ham comfortably at the weekend.

Man City also arrive in good form having thrashed Fulham 5-0 at the weekend and are also unbeaten in their last eight away games. Their record over United in recent seasons has been impressive:

HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
(Max last 10 only)
Sep 2013 Premier Man City 4-1 Man Utd
Apr 2013 Premier Man Utd 1-2 Man City
Dec 2012 Premier Man City 2-3 Man Utd
Apr 2012 Premier Man City 1-0 Man Utd
Jan 2012 FA Cup Man City 2-3 Man Utd
Oct 2011 Premier Man Utd 1-6 Man City
Aug 2011 C Shield Man Utd 3-2 Man City
Apr 2011 FA Cup Man City 1-0 Man Utd
Feb 2011 Premier Man Utd 2-1 Man City
Nov 2010 Premier Man City 0-0 Man Utd

For City, Vincent Kompany is back from suspension but Sergio Aguero and Matija Nastasic are both on the sidelines through injury.

David Moyes is likely to make a late call on the fitness of Chris Smalling (hamstring), Jonny Evans (calf) and Rio Ferdinand (back). His problems are confounded by captain Vidic being suspended and Robin van Persie being out with a knee injury.

I’m selling Man City on the supremacy market with Star Spreads and selling bookings at 56.

It’s likely to be a high tempo game that could easily get explosive but referee Michael Oliver has only exceeded 56 points once in his last 17 matches and that was a make-up of 60 so we will need to be something out of the ordinary for us to sustain a big loss in this match. The spread looks too high – as regular readers know I’m normally a buyer in this market but not at 56.

That’s in theory at least……

We were saved by the bookings yesterday – a great make up of 60 (bought at 40) ensured a healthy profit on the day – despite getting the outcome of the match – totally wrong !

RECOMMENDED BET (scale 1-10 points)

SELL MAN CITY / MANU U for 10 points at around 0.3 with Star Spreads
SELL BOOKINGS for 10 points at around 56 with Star Spreads

RUNNING RETURN (MARCH): PROFIT 165.00 POINTS

RUNNING RETURN (YEAR): PROFIT 269.50 POINTS

• Any spread prices quoted are indicative and as always prices are subject to fluctuation.
• Please note the opinion, views and forecasts above are of the author and not of Star Spreads.