Brighton v Derby (7.45pm)

They say the Championship playoff final is the biggest game in English football, so it follows the playoff semi-final is also a high pressure affair.

The Amex Stadium hosts the first semi tonight between Brighton and Derby (7.45pm LIVE SKY).

Brighton came up short against arch rivals Crystal Palace last season and get an unexpected second bite at the lucrative Premier League cherry this season after a last gasp goal at the weekend sealed their place in the playoffs at the expense of Reading who thought they had done enough and indeed their supporters were already on the pitch celebrating

Derby have had a good season, and already beaten Brighton twice but the formbook often goes out the window at this point.

HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
(Max last 10 only)
Jan 2014 Championship Derby 1-0 Brighton
Aug 2013 Championship Brighton 1-2 Derby
Jan 2013 Championship Brighton 2-1 Derby
Oct 2012 Championship Derby 0-0 Brighton
Mar 2012 Championship Brighton 2-0 Derby
Nov 2011 Championship Derby 0-1 Brighton
Nov 2008 Carling Cup Brighton 1-4 Derby
Nov 2005 Championship Brighton 0-0 Derby
Aug 2005 Championship Derby 1-1 Brighton
Feb 2005 Championship Brighton 2-3 Derby

Make no mistakes, there is much more pressure on Derby than Brighton. Derby have had the heartache of not getting an automatic qualification spot whereas Brighton come here on the high of sneaking into the lottery that is the playoffs.

In reality, Derby were a full eight points away from automatic qualification but still finished third ahead of Brighton and QPR and Wigan who will contest the other semi.

Both teams are coming into this in reasonable form although Derby’s away form has dipped (winning only three of their last 11 away games).

Derby usually score goals for fun, indeed their tally of 84 is the best in the whole league but history shows these first leg affairs tend to be cautious as the fear of conceding often outweighs the courage of scoring.

In stock market terms the bears outnumber the bulls and I’m a seller of total goals.

RECOMMENDED BET (scale 1-100 points)

SELL GOALS for 30 points at around 2.2 with Star Spreads

RUNNING RETURN (MAY): LOSS 169.00 POINTS

RUNNING RETURN (YEAR): LOSS 508.00 POINTS

• Any spread prices quoted are indicative and as always prices are subject to fluctuation.
• Please note the opinion, views and forecasts above are of the author and not of Star Spreads.