S.P. Read Esq: The Arc – it’s Japan’s time in France

Our daily columnist and pundit S.P.Read Esq. looks ahead to the big race of the day at Longchamp Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe and finds the best opportunity available on Star Spreads, the home of sports spread betting.

It hasn’t been billed as a vintage Arc (possibly unfairly) but what can’t be doubted is that it is one of the most interesting puzzles to solve.

Trying to predict what will even start favourite is hard enough, let alone trying to find the winner of the race.

In an increasingly international race you have to give considerable respect to the Japanese raiders Just A Way, Gold Ship and the three-year-old Harp Star.

Japanese horses have gone close before – claiming silver prize four times and their time will surely come soon ?

Pick of them might be the filly Harp Star, winner of the Japanese 1000 Guineas who has reportedly worked very well since her arrival in France.

Three-year-old fillies have a very respectable record in the race – just look back to Treve last year.

I’d love to see Treve run well again but I couldn’t be backing her today as Arc winners struggle to go back to back. She comes here on the back of two odds-on defeats and some of the magic seems to have gone. She was unbeaten coming into the race last year and the ground won’t be as soft as she needs today.

Tapestry lowered the colours of Oaks winner Taghrooda at York in what was the shock of the flat season so far. The pair renew rivalry again – the break since York might suit Taghrooda and it’s hard to be positive about Tapestry after her shocking run in the Matron Stakes last time out.

The Irish last won this in 2009 with the brilliant Sea The Stars and Aidan O’Brien saddles three, pick of which might be last year’s Derby hero Ruler Of The World who won well over course and distance under Frankie Dettori in the Prix Foy last time out. He comes into this a fresh horse which is a positive.

It’s so finely balanced it’s scary, and trying to tie together collateral international form can tie you in knots.

I think there will be a Japanese trained winner – it’s just a question of which one !! At the prices I can certainly have an interest in all three with Star Spreads on their 50/30/20/10 Arc market.

I’m buying the performance of all three Japanese runners, with a slightly higher stake on Harp Star:

Just A Way BUY at 12 for 1 point
Gold Ship BUY at 9 for 1 point
Harp Star BUY at 11 for 1.5 points

All I need to do then is to survive the inevitable stewards enquiry – those French stewards are quick to blast the claxon as Cirrus Des Aigles supporters found out to their cost yesterday.

Bonne chance mes amis.

CLICK FOR ARC MARKETS ON STAR SPREADS

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale 1-100 points)

BUY JUST A WAY for 1 point at around 12 on the 50/30/20/10 Arc market with Star Spreads
BUY GOLD SHIP for 1 point at around 9 on the 50/30/20/10 Arc market with Star Spreads
BUY HARP STAR for 1.5 points at around 11 on the 50/30/20/10 Arc market with Star Spreads
(OCTOBER RETURN: +15.50 points)

• Any spread prices quoted are indicative and as always prices are subject to fluctuation.
• Please note the opinion, views and forecasts above are of the author and not of Star Spreads.