The ‘Tic at Double Carpet On Is A Steal?
Everyone bar me in the office thinks backing Celtic to win the SPL 2012/13 at 1/33 is a value bet at Paddy Power; they should be 1/100 they say.
I disagree and have offered to lay them the 1/33 in any size if they pay on. Why? Well if nothing untoward happens and with Rangers out of the running they would win the title by a street. The others keep saying this and I keep agreeing. The but is this is football and untoward things do happen. Here are just a few possible scenarios where Celtic do not win the SPL:
- Rangers reinstated and find mega money backer.
- Any other SPL team gets a mega money backer.
- SPL change rule to level things out (salary cap)
- Celtic team plane crash.
- Celtic deducted points for financial reasons, playing ineligible players, crowd trouble etc.
- Celtic thrown out of the league for betting scams, racism etc.
All very unlikely and a very clever man told me the best bets to have are the most scary, but 1/33 doesn’t seem to be sufficient reward for this bet where you would have to stake a small fortune to make it worth your while.
Also if anyone decided to back Celtic at 1/33 in cash with me I could pay the majority of their winnings from the interest if I invested the money wisely (any clues Jimmy Carr?). Paddys seem to have seen business as a day later they are 1/50. I’m still here at 1/33 for cash punters. Backing long odds can be value but in this case I just don’t think it is.
