S.P.Read Esq: West Ham v Liverpool

Our daily columnist and pundit S.P. Read Esq. looks ahead to the FA Cup replay on Tuesday between WEST HAM v LIVERPOOL and finds the best opportunities available on Star Spreads, the home of sports spread betting.

The Super Bowl isn’t for me, but I read reams and reams of analysis and previews on Sunday’s Californian encounter and just about everybody got it completely wrong.

Now, I’m not try to score points here, far from it. My own trade on the Espanyol v Real Sociedad first match goal was a disaster – buying at 41 only to see a goal after just five minutes.

But it concerns me that sometimes the deeper you drill into an event the more lost in the maze you can become. Frankly, you run the risk of becoming hoisted by one’s own petard.

There is sometimes the belief that the more succinct you can make the case for a bet – the stronger it is. If a bet doesn’t stare you in the face – move on.

I’ve tried myself to be a little too clever over the last week or so – and unsuccessfully gone against my initial instinct on a bet in an misguided attempt to convince myself (and you, the reader, that there is a better angle).

Less is more and less is sometimes better. Of course there have to be reasons and not just the name of a horse or a team.

In my naive youth I had a horse’s name thrust at me inside an envelope in the car park at Ascot. The creature went on to win at around 10/1 in a competitive sprint handicap (naturally, without a penny of my money riding on it). I thought the guy was a genius. But the con, of course, was that his ‘business model’ was giving different horses in different envelopes to different punters….. (wonder how the Dragons Den would like that one!).

10% of the mugs (and I include myself) went home thinking of availing of some more of his ‘produce’.

The reasoning is the justification for the bet and in most cases the reasoning and research precedes the bet.

Not tonight.

If I was leaving an envelope on your car tonight it would contain just one word. Well two.

WEST HAM

Why you ask ?? Ah well, we’re back to the reasoning part of the deal but the strongest reason of all is the hardest to articulate – instinct.

I’ll have a go, with my six point submission:

(1) West Ham were every bit as good as Liverpool at Anfield and I spent much of the match already thinking ahead to the replay and wanting to be on the Hammers.

(2) In their last two Premier League games West Ham have won by an aggregate of 5-0.

(3) Jurgen Kiopp is likely to send out a weakened, younger side.

(4) Liverpool have played 11 games this year and fatigue is already a factor. It started to show at the weekend when Liverpool threw away a 2-0 lead against Sunderland.

(5) Klopp himself has had some time off with appendicitis.

(6) As the league table shows, West Ham are playing better football than Liverpool this season.

This has already gone on too long when all I really wanted to say was…

pssssstt…. West Ham guv.

West Ham v Liverpool
FA Cup 4th Round Replay
19:45 BT Sport 2 / BT Sport 2 HD

HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
(Maximum 10 matches)
Jan 2016 FA CUP Liverpool 0-0 West Ham
Jan 2016 PREMIER West Ham 2-0 Liverpool
Aug 2015 PREMIER Liverpool 0-3 West Ham
Jan 2015 PREMIER Liverpool 2-0 West Ham
Sep 2014 PREMIER West Ham 3-1 Liverpool
Apr 2014 PREMIER West Ham 1-2 Liverpool
Dec 2013 PREMIER Liverpool 4-1 West Ham
Apr 2013 PREMIER Liverpool 0-0 West Ham
Dec 2012 PREMIER West Ham 2-3 Liverpool
Feb 2011 PREMIER West Ham 3-1 Liverpool

I’m all over West Ham on Star Spreads and am hoping that a sell of the first West Ham goal at 52 minutes will be every bit as good as last night was bad. I’m also selling the third match goal at 77 minutes.

CLICK FOR WEST HAM v LIVERPOOL MARKETS ON STAR SPREADS

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale 1-100 points)

SELL TIME OF FIRST WEST HAM MATCH GOAL for 35 points at 52 minutes with STAR SPREADS
SELL TIME OF THIRD MATCH GOAL for 35 points at 77 minutes with STAR SPREADS