Lieutenant To Rule Over RSA Rivals
Ante-Post Focus: RSA Chase, Cheltenham Festival, 14th March.
It’s only 43 days until the start of the 2012 Cheltenham Festival where undoubtedly four days of high drama and pulsating action will take place. This means it is now time for ‘the judge’ to trawl through the ante-post markets and see if there is any outstanding value to be had.
A race that has definite appeal from an ante-post perspective is the RSA Chase, the Championship race for staying Novice Chasers. Long-time favourite Grands Crus has an alternative entry in the Gold Cup and it is in the balance as to whether he lines up in the RSA. Second favourite in all lists is Bobs Worth, but for all his ability he hasn’t looked a natural over fences and at this stage I would worry about him having the necessary experience to triumph in such a gruelling test. With these doubts in mind, at around the 9/2 mark he offers little in the way of value.
The Paul Nicholls’ trained Join Together has this race as his main target and commands respect with two comfortable victories at Cheltenham to his name. On the latter occasion he benefitted from jumping errors made by his rivals and he is possibly flattered by the bare form however he does have solid claims given that he jumps adequately and stays well so at around 10/1 he looks priced fairly.
The Irish contingent looks strong and they have secured the last three runnings of the RSA Chase. This year’s raiding party is headed by Philip Fenton’s Last Instalment who has impressed me hugely with his slick fencing and ability to quicken nicely when asked for maximum effort, attributes that will surely make him a danger to all if making it to post at the Festival. At 8/1 I will keep him on side as I am sure the Irish novice form is strong and has been underrated by the layers.
To my mind the outstanding value in the race lies in the Mouse Morris trained First Lieutenant, already a Festival winner having landed the Neptune Novices Hurdle last season. It is fair to say that his chasing career thus far, which started early in October with a comfortable victory at Tipperary, has been solid but unspectacular. The seven year old chestnut has endured mixed fortunes in his four starts since that debut success with the lowest point being a dismal display in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse. Starting a warm 5/4 favourite he never looked happy and jumped poorly before eventually being pulled up. However this effort can easily be forgiven as it was run in very testing conditions and First Lieutenant is far happier when faced with ‘spring’ ground, conditions he should get at Cheltenham.
His latest effort in the Fort Leney at Leopardstown was much more like it. On suitable good ground and racing left handed for the first time since his chase debut, he jumped more fluently than on any previous start and whilst he was beaten six lengths by Last Instalment that doesn’t tell the whole story. The selection stumbled quite badly shortly after halfway, just as the leaders were starting to quicken and he was unsurprisingly put on the back foot, being outpaced approaching two out before staying on stoutly to grab second on the line.
This latest effort left me with the strong impression that First Lieutenant has every attribute needed to run a huge race in the RSA Chase and that the combination of slowly run races and heavy ground have combined to nullify his opportunity to show what he can really do as a chaser.
In the RSA Chase I firmly believe that First Lieutenant will finally get the race conditions he needs to show his true ability as a chaser and at 16/1 I am confident he will at least hit the frame.
First Lieutenant (RSA Chase)
1pt EW @ 16/1
