Whose Name is on the Cup?

This weekend sees the 3rd round of the FA Cup. I may be showing my age here but when I was playing football in the park (since replaced by some flats and the council’s new half-mown laziness policy but that is old man gripe is for another time), I dreamt of scoring the winning goal from an apparently ageless Glenn Hoddle cross. The first weekend of January was a real season highlight for any football fan but this is certainly the case no more.

Top clubs resting their first choice players seems to be the main story on 3rd round day and it is only the draw giving us a clash between Manchester City and Manchester United which is keeping the FA Cup in the media spotlight. However, a clash between the best two teams in the country means that perhaps there may be value in the outright markets. For a few years a sound betting system was to back all of the “big 4” of Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool and wait to be paid out. This gave you the winner 14 of the last 17 years and few could question Manchester City’s ascent into the “big 4” prior to their victory over Stoke in last year’s final.

Although backing the best teams give you a decent value bet with a good chance of getting to the pay-out window the fact that Stoke, West Ham, Southampton, Cardiff and Portsmouth (twice) have made the final in the last ten years gives hope for a big priced each way alternative.

The drop from the premiership to the championship has such colossal implications for a club that I feel those caught in a relegation dogfight are highly likely to see the FA Cup as a distraction and will quite happily rest players to save their resources for important league battles ahead. This means crossing Wolves, QPR, Bolton, Wigan and Blackburn from our potential shortlist. Premiership newcomers Swansea and Norwich will want to cement their mid table position as a priority, Stoke may be distracted by their European run and a resurgent Newcastle will be hoping to gain a place in next year’s UEFA Cup. This to my eyes leaves a long list of possible selections of Sunderland, Everton, Aston Villa, Fulham or West Brom.

Looking at the current prices on offer I think Everton at 20-1 and Sunderland at 50-1 provide the best value on offer. Everton are the shortest price of those teams on my shortlist but have as simple a fixture to kick off their campaign as they could hope for as they entertain non-league Tamworth. To my eyes they are still the seventh best team in the country. Sunderland who appear resurgent under supreme man motivator Martin O’Neill travel to Peterborough for a tricky fixture but if they can negotiate this potential banana skin expect a decent cup run to further endear O’Neill to the Sunderland fans.

Recommended Big Bets

1pt e/w EVERTON 20-1
0.5pt e/w SUNDERLAND 50-1