French Ace Can Upset Camelot

The first classic of the flat season, the 2000 Guineas, comes under the spotlight in my latest betting blog and I am not going to pull any punches when it comes to my thoughts on hot favourite, Camelot.

Aidan O’Brien’s colt has been a short price for the Guineas ever since a smooth success in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last October. Whilst I am sure he is a very talented colt, I am also convinced that he will only be able to show his true talent when he is stepped up in trip and, to my mind, there is a massive question as to whether the Guineas is the race for him.

Further evidence to back up this viewpoint is the fact that Camelot’s sire, the late Montjeu, has had only a handful of 3 year old winners over a mile and, in particular, only two of those were Group race winners. At around the 5/4 mark Camelot rates dreadful value and I am confident we can get him on the deck.

Trumpet Major was an impressive winner of the Craven Stakes but it was a distinctly poor field he beat, and I will be surprised if he has the talent to land this for Richard Hannon who hasn’t won this race since 1990.

The Dewhurst Stakes is traditionally a good trial for the Guineas and last season’s first two home, Parish Hall and Power, look sure to make their presence felt, with preference for the latter who is a very solid performer, but at the current prices I am inclined to look elsewhere.

John Oxx has a formidable record when he sends runners to England and, in the impeccably bred Born To Sea, he has a very live chance of adding another big race win to his record. The half-brother to Sea The Stars began his career with a smooth victory, that oozed class, in a listed race when displaying a fantastic turn of foot, and subsequently had valid excuses for a defeat when odds-on in the Killavullan the following month. At around 8/1 I believe he is fair value.

The one I am extremely keen on is the French-trained Abtaal. An impressive winner of a Group 3 race last season, he made a satisfactory reappearance in the Djebel when a close second to French Fifteen who re-opposes. On that occasion he was given a tender ride by Christophe Soumillon very much suggesting that his shrewd handler, the up and coming Jean-Claude Rouget, will have him spot on for the Guineas.

He is currently available at 10/1 and I believe the straight mile at Newmarket is ideal for this colt to show his undoubted talent and land another Guineas for France after Makfi’s win in 2010.

The Judge’s Big Bets

2000 Guineas
Abtaal 3pt EW @ 10/1
Born To Sea 1pt EW @ 8/1