Swedes Value to prevail in Group D
In my latest betting blog I move away from my specialist subject and concentrate on finding some value in the markets for the fast approaching European Championships.
Now I must confess I usually steer clear of punting on football and will only put some hard-earned down when ‘the captain’, our footy expert in the office, persuades me that a team is a much bigger price than they should be. All that said, when the big International tournaments come around I always try to grab a large slice of value.
To my mind Sweden have to be backed at 13/2 to win Group D. They are seriously overpriced to come out on top in a Group where France and England are priced up as 9/4 joint favourites when in truth they are both squads with massive deficiencies.
Roy Hodgson’s squad choice looks decidedly ‘safe’ and he is relying on personnel who have come up short many times over the last 10 or 12 years. The French will be looking for striker Karim Benzema to fire them deep into the competition but, on closer inspection, their squad looks decidedly thin on quality, especially in midfield where they will rely on players who have had very limited playing time this season in Arsenal’s Abou Diaby and Chelsea’s Florent Malouda.
The other team in the group is the Ukraine who at 5/1 look incredibly poor value and would be double those odds but for being a ‘home nation’.
Sweden were always a tough nut to crack under former coach Lars Lagerback but, with this tenacity and work-rate, came a predictability and a lack of invention in their attacking play which has ultimately cost them from going to the latter stages of the big tournaments too often. New head coach Erik Hamren has steadily improved the attacking department of their game whilst maintaining a disciplined robust way of defending, and it is worth remembering that they defeated Holland 3-2 in their final qualification game, further proof that Hamren’s influence is improving the team’s belief when they play big opponents.
The squad looks well balanced with West Brom’s Jonas Olsson, fresh from a great season in the Premier League, leading the back line. Ahead of this is a midfield that includes goal-getter Christian Wilhelmsson, who should line up alongside the very talented duo of Rasmus Elm and Kim Kallstrom. The goals will hopefully be provided by the experienced and clinical Zlatan Ibrahimovic, with backup from Ola Toivonen, who has enjoyed a fruitful campaign with PSV Eindhoven and has an eye for the spectacular.
My advice is to take the 13/2 about this well-oiled machine to prevail in Group D over the timid French and perennial under-achievers England. Sweden are currently available at a ludicrous 80/1 on the outright and that is also worth a few shillings interest.
The Judge’s Big Bets
Euro 2012
Sweden to win Group D 3pts @ 13/2
Sweden to win EURO 2012 0.5pt @ 80/1
