US Open Tennis Final Preview

Andy Murray seemed to have undergone the full transformation from grumpy Scottish moaner in the eyes of the British public to plucky, heroic underdog loser as the tears fell on Wimbledon’s centre court in the aftermath of Roger Federer’s success. His transformation was complete as, representing ‘Team GB’ at the Olympics; he seemed to finally exorcise his big match demons by crushing Federer in straight sets.

I have long held the view that, like ‘non-winners’ in golf, all he had to do was hang around in Grand Slam tournaments for long enough and eventually one would fall his way. Murray finds himself playing in an era with multiple high class performers (Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and an absent Rafa Nadal) and I feel sure he will break his Grand Slam drought.

I know some shrewdies who are holding Murray 6-1 ante post vouchers for the US Open and they find themselves in an enviable position now as the general prices are 4-9 Djokovic and 2-1 Murray with the final just hours away. Where does the value lie now however?

The narrative for this tournament has all been about Murray and have felt that there may be a chance to oppose him at some point but is 4/9 the right price to do so?

Djokovic is playing on his favourite surface although their head to head is actually quite close (the Serbian leads this 8-6 on all surfaces and only 6-5 on hard courts). Five set matches could obviously be a factor and Djokovic crushed Murray in the Australian Open final last year. I can’t help feel that 4/9 is about right.

Total Games on the final have been pitched at over/under 41.5 and I fell this could be a value ’under’. Both of these players have the propensity to either win in quick fashion (Djokovic v Murray in Australia or Murray v Federer at the Olympics) and can go missing for a set (Djokovic v Ferrer in his semi-final). A couple of 6-2’s will do the trick early on.

1pt Under 41.5 @ 10/11 Total Games