Chopin Can Call Derby Tune

This year’s race revolves around the unbeaten 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach and whether or not Jim Bolger’s charge will stay the extra 4 furlongs of the Derby trip. There are certainly mixed messages from his breeding being by a Derby winner in New Approach but his Dam was a daughter of an American sprinter and her progeny have all been 6 furlongs to 1 mile performers. Backers will rightly point to his relaxed style of racing and sheer class as solid reasons why he will win but at his cramped odds I would rather take him on.

Ballydoyle look set to field a battalion of 5 runners no less and of these the market favours Battle Of Marengo, winner of the Derrinstown Derby trial at Leopardstown on his latest outing. It was far from a strong field that day and Battle Of Marengo was workmanlike in victory and although undoubtedly consistent and tough I have reservations as to whether he has the class to prevail. At around 9/2 he makes limited appeal.

Of Aidan O’Brien’s other representatives Ruler Of The World, winner of the Chester Vase, will no doubt have his supporters ridden by Ryan Moore but it would not surprise me if Mars fared best of the quintet. A highly-touted juvenile last season Mars was a very respectable 6th behind Dawn Approach in the 2000 Guineas, showing distinct signs of inexperience mid-race before staying on nicely towards the finish. The booking of the excellent Richard Hughes and the step up to 12 furlongs can only benefit this son of Galileo and I can see him out-running his odds. Festive Cheer is also worthy of mention having improved dramatically for a step up in trip on his seasonal debut in a Group 2 at Longchamp. He has to step up again to trouble the principals here but that is far from impossible.

The distinct lack of genuine British challengers is highlighted by the fact that they are headed by a 16/1 chance in the shape of shock Dante Stakes winner Libertarian. He raced lazily that day and it was to his credit that he was able to win going away from a decent field. He is not to be under-estimated but there is a worry that the unique gradients of Epsom will not be to his liking, especially if he doesn’t travel kindly early on as he did at York.

Ocovango is following the same route as his trainer’s Pour Moi, the 2011 Epsom Derby hero, having won the same Group 2 at Saint-cloud before being aimed towards Epsom. Andre Fabre is always to be respected and stamina will not be a problem for this unbeaten son of Monsun. He rates a big danger to all.

For my main selection I turn to the first ever German challenger to run in the Epsom Derby. Chopin looked a colt with immense potential when slamming his rivals by 8 lengths and upwards on his seasonal debut at Krefeld. Settled in behind the leaders, he put the race to bed in a matter of strides displaying a scintillating turn of foot. The runner-up then went on to finish a close 2nd in the German Guineas giving more credence to the performance. He was subsequently purchased by Qatar Racing and supplemented for the Derby at a late entry cost of £75,000. At around 10/1 he represents a bit of value in a race which I believe is more open than the market portrays.

The Judge’s Derby Bets

Chopin 2pt E/W
Ocovango 1pt E/W

The Judge’s Spread Betting Advice

Buy Festive Cheer at 7 or lower on the 50-30-20-10 index