The Oaks
The middle distance fillies of the classic generation have a chance to join Epsom’s roll of honour on Friday at 4pm. Eleven runners go to post and three powerful yards are double handed making it very hard for punters with some lightly raced fillies to evaluate.
The market is currently headed by Qatar Racings recent purchase Secret Gesture at 5-2. She was visually very impressive winning the Lingfield Oaks trial in decisive fashion under Jim Crowley and a condition of her recent sale was that the excellent Crowley would retain the ride ahead of retained stable jockey Jamie Spencer. Her stable saddled Look Here to win the Oaks after previously getting beat at Lingfield so know what an Oaks type is. Spencer instead rides the owners second sting The Lark who has been backed by some shrewd characters over the last few days at near three figure prices. Ralph Beckett, a shrewd operator in my opinion, also saddles last time out winner Talent and second strings can often be value in big races, but in this case I feel Secret Gesture is by far the most likely winner of this race.
Speaking of over-priced second strings, Aiden O’Brien saddles the second favourite Moth and also Say at around the 10-1 mark. Moth finished a running on 3rd in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket earlier this month and Just The Judge franked the form in winning the Irish equivalent last weekend. None of this has gone unnoticed by the market however and stepping up four furlongs in trip is one to oppose for me. At the prices I prefer Say as a potential bet. Along with Secret Gesture, Say has proven winning form over the trip and although it was only a maiden she won last time at the short odds of 1-6 I would rather back proven stayers than potential stayers in any Group 1 race.
Impressive Chester winner Banoffee for the under-rated Hughie Morrison yard is one guaranteed to stay but may not be suited by the unique undulations of Epsom and the lightly raced Liber Nauticus is reluctantly left out of my portfolio after two wins from two starts. An impressive win at two at Goodwood was followed by an ultimately workmanlike win at York but from the Sir Michael Stoute yard and ridden by the most reliable jockey in Britain Ryan Moore is a real danger.
Not many can be totally ruled out in a strong looking race but I feel a bet on the visually impressive SECRET GESTURE with a small e/w bet on the alleged O’Brien second string SAY would complete my fixed odds bets and we at Star Spreads will be looking to be ‘with’ Secret Gesture and ‘against’ Moth in a match-bet.
1pt win SECRET GESTURE
0.5pt e/w SAY
