Tony's Premier League Preview

SATURDAY 11th JANUARY

Hull City v Chelsea – 12:45

The Blues travel to the KC stadium in the first of the weekend’s Premier League looking for a win which will take them top of the table for the first this season.

At first glance this would appear to be an easy victory for Chelsea. However, Hull have a decent home record. They have only lost twice at home this season but more importantly they have only conceded 6 in 10. This gives you an idea of how Hull play at home.

Chelsea have a very good record at the KC and are starting to hit form. In their last 6 games they have taken 13 points from a possible 18. If Chelsea get an early goal they will run riot. However, I expect Hull to be hard to beat.

A win here for Chelsea, but I think they will be made to work.

Cardiff City v West Ham United – 15:00

Let’s start with a football cliché. This is a relegation six pointer, and such a fascinating game from so many points of view. It’s the one of the newest Premier League manager verses possibly the next manager to be relieved of his duties.

Whilst both teams have shown a total lack of form in recent weeks Cardiff just might have the edge in this game. A fine victory in the FA Cup away to Newcastle last weekend and coming within 1 minute from gaining a hard fought draw at Arsenal Cardiff still appear to be together as a team. The same cannot be said about West Ham. Big losses in their last 2 games conceding 11 goals, only 15 first team players to pick from. The manager is coming under fire from all quarters. West Ham’s last victory in all competitions came on 18th December verses Tottenham, ironically in the Capital One Cup, and their last victory in the League came against Fulham on the 30th November.

The only case that can be made for a West Ham victory is they have beaten Cardiff in their last 5 matches, keeping clean sheets in 4 of these games. Both teams need a victory but after the last 5 days West Ham have had they will be far happier with a goalless bore draw.

Everton v Norwich City – 15:00

The only thing which has seen Everton not being considered real title contenders this season is the number of draws. Eight matches from 20 played have ended this way. This is a 40% ratio. Everton could have been 1 point off the top if they have managed to convert 3 of these draws into victories.

Norwich, have themselves turned into draw specialists in recent weeks, 4 draws in their last 7 games in all competitions. However, you have to look at the quality of these draws coming against fellow relegation contenders such as Fulham, Crystal Palace and Sunderland.

Everton at home should be far too strong for Norwich and the odds reflect this. I do not think the 4/1 for the draw is tempting enough even based on the fact Norwich have not lost to Everton in their last 5 encounters, with 4 matches ending in a DRAW.

Fulham v Sunderland – 15:00

Another relegation six pointer, but looking at the recent form it can be argued that Sunderland are on a upward curve.

Sunderland have only lost 1 game in their last 8 matches. They have beaten the likes of Chelsea (in extra time) Everton and Manchester United. Even Arsenal have not managed this this season.

Fulham have won 3 of their home league fixture this season and it is a toss-up which Fulham team will turn up at the Cottage at the weekend. It can be argued that a focused Fulham, if they start fast, should get the better of a Sunderland team still on a high from their cup victory against Man Utd midweek. But with possible Wembley places now up it is certain all Sunderland players will be trying.

A draw is a strong possibility here, which appears to be the recurring theme amongst the relegation threaten clubs.

Southampton v WBA – 15:00

This is a horrible game to call. A month ago most people would consider Southampton worthy favourites for this match. However, looking at the recent 6 match league table this appears more like a relegation 6 pointer with both teams looking for points to climb away from the bottom of the table.

Southampton form has slumped since the Saints loss to Arsenal on 23rd November. Their only victory was away to Cardiff on Boxing Day. WBA has fared little better with their only victory in 10 matches coming on New Year’s Day at home to Newcastle. If you were to put a positive spin and to take a view on who will win the match, WBA are now unbeaten in their last 4 games, plus the players will be trying to impress new manager Pepe Mel. Expect to see a lot of endeavour from both sides.

Tottenham v Crystal Palace – 15:00

Tottenham appear to be more confident on the road than at White Hart Lane. Tottenham have pick up over 73% of available away points on their travels this season in the Premier League. This is the same percentage as Arsenal. If they were able to replicate they away form at home then Tottenham would be genuine title contenders.

Crystal Palace have been more resilient since the appointment of Tony Pulis. Their recent 1-0 defeat away to Manchester City is proof on this. In fact, recent form would place them midway in the table. However, Tottenham should overcome their home advantage jitters. They can continue their own recent improvement in form, and if results in other games go in their favour, they could be back in a Champions League place after this round of games.

Manchester United v Swansea City – 17:30

Manchester United have not lost 4 matches on the trot in the Premier League era , and the last time they did Dave Sexton was the manager.

Now for the positive spin. 2 of their 3 defeats have come in cup games. The only dent to their Champions League place push was against Tottenham on New Year’s Day. Manchester United player’s pride has been hurt and you can guarantee their will come out of the blocks quickly. Also consider Swansea recent form in the Premier League. They are winless in the League since 4th December, picking up 3 points from a possible 18. If there was a table based on the last 6 matches Swansea would be second bottom, United would be in fifth place.

I expect a response from United in this game. If not expect another $200 million to be wiped the value of the club.

SUNDAY 12th JANUARY

Newcastle v Manchester City – 14:05

Manchester City have been almost perfect in all competition since their come for behind win away to Bayern Munich mid-December. The only blip was a 1-1 draw away to Blackburn in last Saturday’s FA Cup.

Newcastle were climbing up the table, but successive defeats in the League has halted their progress. Newcastle will be hard to beat in front of their home fans, and with Loic Remy up front they have a genuine goal threat. Man City have the upper hand in the recent head to heads, winning the last 9 encounters. Newcastle’s last victory against Man City came in 2005. Alan Pardew will set his side to be tight at the back and in the middle of the park. The size of the City squad is a massive advantage and should continue their impressive form with another away day victory.

Stoke City v Liverpool – 16:10

We’re into the second half of the season and Liverpool are still in the title hunt. How often have we been able to say that in the last 20 years?

With Man City and Chelsea starting to find consistency and Arsenal refusing to fall away as everyone keeps predicting, Liverpool need to win this sort of game. They have only won once at the Britannia in their last 4 visits and their away form this year has been average. Stoke as usual are proving very difficult to beat at home, having lost only once on their own patch this season. For Liverpool, yet again much will depend on Suarez delivering the goods. Expect a close one with a draw the most likely outcome.

MONDAY 13th JANUARY

Aston Villa v Arsenal – 20.00

Aston Villa really don’t have a lot going for them at present. They’ve just been dumped out of the cup at home by Sheffield United, they have scored fewer goals at home this season than any other team, and on current form they are a bottom 4 side. Arsenal, on the other hand have won their last 4, scoring 8 and conceding only 1 in the process. They have the best away form in the league. Although they have lost Walcott for the season through injury, and will be looking to strengthen this month, they still have too much for a Villa side low on confidence. I don’t expect them to run away with it, but I still expect the Gunners to come away with all 3 points.

• Any spread prices quoted are indicative and as always prices are subject to fluctuation.
• Please note the opinion, views and forecasts above are of the author and not of Star Spreads.