Chelsea v PSG (7.45pm ITV)

Confession time. Paris St-Germain are not a team I like much. I’ve always considered them (probably unfairly) a team of expensive individuals but with little collective team spirit or fighting qualities when the going gets tough.

In punting though, you have to be prepared to adjust – otherwise you end up making the same mistakes time after time and after the first leg of their tie against Chelsea, which they won 3-1, I went some way to changing my mind.

They were value for their win – but a little flattered by the scoreline – Pastore’s injury time winner was harsh on Chelsea and leaves them with a tough job to complete at Stamford Bridge tonight.

HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
(Max last 10 only)
Apr 2014 C League Paris St-G. 3-1 Chelsea
Nov 2004 C League Chelsea 0-0 Paris St-G.
Sep 2004 C League Paris St-G. 0-3 Chelsea

Tonight we’ll find out whether 2012 Champions League winners Chelsea have still got some fighting spirit left after coming off the rails a bit in the race for the Premier League title and we’ll also find out whether PSG can cope without Zlatan Ibrahimovic who picked up a hamstring injury in the first leg encounter in Paris.

Ibrahimovic has been responsible for over 40% of their home goals this season domestically – he will be replaced by Edinson Cavani who joined PSG last summer for ‘just’ the odd £55m.

Chelsea’s home record under Mourinho now stands at 78 games unbeaten and they are odds on tonight to win, but around 5/2 to qualify.

PSG have scored in 17 successive Champions League matches, so a buy on total goals might be rewarded.

I’m also buying bookings at 58. It’s a highish starting point but with so much at stake it could easily get very lively.

RECOMMENDED BET (scale 1-10 points)

BUY TOTAL GOALS for 10 points at around 2.75 with Star Spreads
BUY BOOKINGS for 10 points at around 58 with Star Spreads

RUNNING RETURN (APRIL): LOSS 330.50 POINTS

RUNNING RETURN (YEAR): PROFIT 103.50 POINTS

• Any spread prices quoted are indicative and as always prices are subject to fluctuation.
• Please note the opinion, views and forecasts above are of the author and not of Star Spreads.