US Open Golf

How on earth do you price up this years’s US Open golf tournament? Let’s start with Tiger Woods. As either the greatest or second greatest (Jack…) golfer of all time, he must be favourite. But he hasn’t been quite the same since fire-hydrant-gate and he hasn’t won a major for 5 years (the US Open of 2008).

Then again, in his pomp he won majors for fun, and won the aforementioned US Open on one leg. And he’s back in good nick having won four times already this season.

But… he flopped in last week’s tour event (the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide Insurance) for which he went off as short as 2-1. And he managed to card a 44 for nine holes, something that even my brother probably wouldn’t have settled for on the first tee. And his US Open record isn’t quite as sparkling as his record in the other majors; he’s won it 3 times (compared to 4 in the Masters) but when he flops at the US it tends to be more severe than in the others (T82, MC and several finishes around the 20 mark).

And yet the US Open saw arguably the definitive Tiger Woods performance. In 2000 he won by 15 shots, after a 54 hole lead of 10 shots!) and kickstarted the Tiger Slam.

So… in conclusion I have no idea what price he should be and – as a consequence – I have no idea if he’s a bet or not. So I’ll look further down the field for some value.

My 2 against The Tiger the field are: Hunter Mahan and Jason Day.

Hunter Mahan – this 31 year old American looks certain to “go in” sometime soon and I rather fancy this year’s US Open is the time for him to do it. He has a scruffy record at this tournament, having missed 2 of the last 3 cuts, but I think we can forgive him as he’s a far stronger player these days. After he broke my heart in last season’s Shell Houston Open (I’d had the house on Petterson) I’ve promised myself the next time Mahan wins, so will I. Prices around 50-1 look way off the mark for this highly-talented golfer, who’s in his prime now and ready to challenge the big boys.

Jason Day – Another player coming into his prime, Jason Day can defy the choker label and win for us in the US Open. He posted a 2nd at this tournament in 2011 and was 3rd in the Master a few months ago. I’m always keen to get with these close-but-no-cigar golfers, as I don’t believe in “pressure”, “clutch”, “choking” etc and I think that consistency is the key to winning on the US tour these days. I really can’t see how Day is around the 40-1 mark, surrounded by players nowhere near his ability. Trust this talented young Australian with your hard-earned cash.