Premier League Long-Term Bets
Let’s cut right down to business for this very exciting 2013/14 Premier League campaign. The punditry has gone beyond ridiculous at this point with all the mull-merchants harping on about how crucial the absence of Sir Alex will prove to be. It’s nonsense. The best teams win the Premier League. That’s all it ever comes down to, and you can include Man City’s dramatic goal difference victory two seasons ago, because ultimately they were able to get the job done when United couldn’t, and that is the mark of a championship winning team. A more than necessary emphasis has been placed upon the three incoming managers and it is going to be more down to the players on this occasion. Here I am going to weigh up the chance of the three teams who are in with a genuine chance of winning the league…
Man City
A strange approach by the Blue half of Manchester this summer in the sense that they’ve been rather quiet and more importantly; sensible. It appears to be a Pellegrini-effect as he has chosen to keep below radar in his first months in charge. While getting rid of Tevez and Balotelli, City have carefully rebuilt following a disappointing end to their title challenge last season. This does not mean they haven’t spent a great deal of money however – adding the likes of Navas, Negredo, Fernandinho and others for hefty fees. I imagine it will be a completely different looking City and one which operates a lot more functionally and organised. Last season they had the best defence in the league and barring the injury to Nastasic there is no reason they cannot continue that into this year. You can get 9/4 for Man City to win the league next season, and I’d be far more inclined backing them at that price than I would backing Chelsea at the same price. Let’s now talk about Chelsea.
Chelsea
The Special One is back at Chelsea and Chelsea appear to be slightly overpriced in my view due to the Mourinho effect. They have signed decent players in Schurrle and Van Ginkel, and will certainly benefit from the return of Lukaku, but apart from that they appear to have a similar squad to last year but with some of the spine of the team a year older. I’ve no desire to be backing these boys at 9/4, there’s nothing to suggest that they’ll be any better than they were last season.
Man United
They trounced the league last year but it will certainly not be quite so easy this year, and they begin the season perhaps somewhat unfairly as third favourites at 5/2. They have the same team as last year, with the possible exception of Rooney if he does leave the club, but presumably the assumption is that the lack of imported talent has meant that the other two have caught up somewhat and even overtaken the champions. While I agree that United should have already strengthened their squad as there are particular obvious areas of weakness, I cannot see that Chelsea have made enough of a step up to overtake United as second favourites. I think United are going to be very prone to market over-reactions this year given the departure of Ferguson and the unknown which surrounds Moyes. A bad run could see them drift out massively so I would advise waiting to see how they get on before backing them, therefore possibly grabbing much longer odds.
This season will chop and change, there will be plenty of trading opportunities in this market, it will just be all about picking the right moments. I can’t wait.
Long-Term Bets
– SELL CHELSEA SEASON PTS @ 80
– BUY SWANSEA SEASON PTS @ 46
– RVP TOP GOALSCORER @ 7/2 (E/W)
– NEGREDO TOP GOALSCORER @ 25/1 (E/W)
– MAN CITY/MAN CITY DUAL FORECAST @ 11/4
– ARSENAL TOP LONDON CLUB (CHELSEA/ARSENAL/SPURS) @ 3/1
