Tony's Premier League Preview
Saturday 14th December
Manchester City v Arsenal:
Man City have dominated this fixture over the last 4 seasons with Arsenal having recorded only 1 victory over City in their last 10 encounters in all competitions. This season, Man City have been almost perfect at home with their only loss coming against European Champions Bayern Munich, and scoring 26 Premier League goals in 7 matches. Arsenal have been good on the road this season, barring the result against Man Utd. they have picked up points on all their road trips. A draw for Arsenal would be a good result
BUY TOTAL GOALS @ 3.15
Cardiff City v WBA:
There is very little historical form to go on for this match. WBA beat Cardiff 4-2 last season in the FA Cup with Odemwingie opening the scoring for WBA against his current club. WBA only victory on the road this season was against Man Utd, which at the time was considered a good result. Cardiff have achieved some creditable results at home this season, beating Man City and local rivals Swansea and drawing with Man Utd. Therefore, expect another close encounter here.
Chelsea v Crystal Palace:
All the stats points to an easy 3 points for Chelsea. Chelsea have won the last 5 encounters against Palace scoring 16 goals and conceding just 3. However, this is their first league meeting since the 2004/05 season. Chelsea have been better at home than when playing away. They remain unbeaten in the league at home only dropping points to WBA, scoring a very late and very controversial penalty. The arrival of Tony Pulis has added some backbone to the team, winning their last 2 matches, and without conceding a goal. The Chelsea match will be a step up in class and I would be very surprised if Chelsea didn’t claim all 3 points.
Everton v Fulham:
Everton have only lost once this season in the league, away to Man City, but lost 2-1 away to Fulham in this year’s Capital One Cup. Unbeaten in their last 8 leagues matches since losing to Man City, Everton have drawn 4 of these matches, 2 of these coming at Goodison Park. Fulham’s 2-0 victory stopped a 7 match losing streak. Was the extra man in midfield against Villa a tactical masterstroke by new Fulham manager Rene Meulensteen? Whilst Everton are riding high in the table I wouldn’t be surprised to see this match end in a draw, as almost 47% of their matches this season have ended in that way.
BACK The Draw @ 4/1
Newcastle v Southampton:
Seventh plays eighth at St James’ Park. Newcastle have climbed up the table only losing once in 6 matches, 3-0 to Swansea, whilst Southampton have only pick up 1 point from the last 12. The matches last season were split. The form guide suggest a victory for the home team but the only really bad result in Southampton’s recent run came against Aston Villa, losing 3-2 at St Mary’s. The 1-1 draw against Man City would have restored their confidence and I would expect a tight game here, in fact it is too close to call.
West Ham v Sunderland:
This game is already a relegation 6 pointer and both teams will be keen to avoid what would be 3 straight defeats. Defences have been leaking goals of late with West Ham conceding 5 and Sunderland 6 in their last 2 fixtures. Although both teams will be desperate for a win, you get the feeling that the priority will be to avoid defeat. For this reason I’m expecting another tight affair and don’t be surprised if we have a similar result to last year’s 1-1 draw.
Hull v Stoke:
Stoke will be on a high following their home victory over Chelsea last weekend. However, their away form this season has been nothing short of terrible. They have picked up only 4 points from a possible 21 on the road, and with a record like that there are few places worse to visit than Hull. The Tigers have been miserly at home this season conceding only 3 and although they have only scored 7 themselves, they have still managed to accumulate 14 points from a possible 21. Hull fans are opposed to a name change and I’m sure they won’t want their home form to change either. After two difficult games on the road they’ll be glad to be back at the KC. Location is the key to this one and I expect Hull to shade it.
BACK Hull to win 2-1 @ 10/1
Sunday 15th December
Aston Villa v Manchester United:
Villa are 5 points and 4 places better off than they were at this stage last year and although they haven’t beaten Man Utd at Villa Park since just before the Boar War you get the feeling this statistic might change this Sunday. Utd are 14 points, 15 goals and 8 places worse off than this time last season and are Champions only in name. A defeat at Villa Park this weekend would be three League defeats in a row for Utd; the first time this has happened since December 2001. Utd won the corresponding fixture last season coming from 2-0 down to win with 3 second half goals. You sense they are lacking the character to do anything like that again this season and I feel Utd will need an early goal to boost confidence if they are to get a result.
SELL Time of the first match @ 34
Norwich v Swansea:
Although Swansea have the better record in the Premier League since both clubs were promoted in 2011, Norwich have the better head to head. In their four meetings Norwich have won three with the fourth game ending in a draw. The Canaries home record this season reads the same as Manchester United’s, which in any other year would be an achievement. However, 11 points from 7 games is mid table form. The fixture list may just be catching up with Swansea as they have failed to win in their last three league games following a midweek Europa League tie. The corresponding fixture finished 2-2 last year but following Thursday’s Europa game and taking into account the recent head to head it’s hard to look past a Norwich win.
Tottenham v Liverpool
Two teams with top 4 ambitions at the very least, and both are looking to make it 3 wins on the spin. Tottenham have dominated the exchanges at White Hart Lane for the past few seasons and indeed you have to go back to 2008 for the last time Liverpool won here. With Sturridge and Gerrard both absent through injury, Suarez will again be expected to provide the attacking spark. Suarez has been in awesome form this season and has scored 6 goals in his last 2 games. However, he should encounter a little more resistance against the Spurs defence than he did in his last 2 games at Anfield. No European hangover for Tottenham as they had already qualified for the Europa League knock out stages before Thursday night’s game and this allowed them to rest key players. Guaranteed goals in this one and I expect Spurs to edge it
BUY Total Goals @2.9
- Any spread prices quoted are indicative and as always prices are subject to fluctuation.
- Please note the opinion, views and forecasts above are of the author and not of Star Spreads.
