Skipper's Euro Thoughts 3
In my third instalment of Euro 2012 blogs I will be taking a look at the group stages to see if we can sniff out a little value on teams to qualify or in some cases not to qualify.
Group A
Poland are one of the home nations this time around and it makes me wonder how much of an advantage/disadvantage this is, and more importantly is it in the price to much or too little. Let’s take an extreme example: if San Marino were hosting the Euros would you back them to qualify?
Being the home team does have an advantage but you need the team and players to make the advantage count. Poland at 4/5 to qualify is too short for me and I will be going against them. Russia do seem the most likely winners but at 1/2 to qualify and as short as 8/5 to win the group I’LL LEAVE IT JUST NOW.
The value bet in group A is Greece for me. Overpriced, under rated and unfashionable. They tick all the boxes and at 6/4 to qualify and 5/1 to win the group I will be going with the Greeks.
Group B
This is a great group for betting. Four teams all capable of winning the group, some over rated, some under rated and some not given a hope. There is not much between these four teams on the raw stats and the pricing looks way out of line to me.
As I have said in my previous blog I think Germany are too short at 3/1 for the outright market. They are way too short to win the group at 2/7 and I will be looking elsewhere. Portugal at 9/2 to win looks a decent bet to me and at 7/5 to qualify.
I will also be having a small bet on Denmark to win and qualify at 18/1 and 5/1 respectively. As I say it’s three games of football and anything can happen. The Germans could underperform and leave a space for both Portugal and the big priced Danes to qualify.
Group C
Spain will more than likely clinch one of the two spots up for grabs here. As I have stated in previous blogs, I can’t have the Italians on my mind. So I will simply be backing Croatia (7/4) and Ireland (4/1) to qualify and hopefully we can get the Italians on the deck.
A small win bet on Croatia and Ireland at 9/1 and 18/1 is also worth a go; the Spanish could slip up and finish second or maybe even not qualify at all!
Group D
France, England, Ukraine and Sweden. This is one hell of a hard group.
As stated with Poland in the group A betting the same applies to Ukraine. Home advantage will not be enough for them to overcome the other three in there group. France and England are the short priced joint favourites to qualify here but I will be backing neither.
Sweden for me. 13/2 to win the group and 2/1 to qualify both look like solid bets. I really think Sweden can get the job done here.
SKIPPER’S BETS
GROUP A: GREECE 5/1 + 6/4 (Middle Of The Road)
GROUP B: PORTUGAL 9/2 + 7/5 (Big)
DENMARK 18/1 + 5/1 (Just For Smalls)
GROUP C: CROATIA 9/1 + 7/4 (Big)
IRELAND 18/1 + 4/1 (Just For Smalls)
GROUP D: SWEDEN 13/2 + 2/1 (Massive)
