NFL Thoughts – Player Bets
Well the 2012-2013 NFL season is less than a week away and excitement at Star Spreads HQ here in Dublin is at boiling point.
I’ve been known to dabble in some NFL betting over the years, so this week I’m going to hit you with four NFL betting previews. I’ll look at the AFC, the NFC, the MVP race and finally some various player props.
Today I’m going to look at some of the player props (what the bookies in Vegas call player bets). In my MVP preview I took a look at the QBs, so I won’t bother with the passing title (Brady, Rodgers or Stafford). Instead I’ll look at regular season rushing yards, regular season receiving yards, defensive rookie of the year and offensive rookie of the year.
Regular season rushing yards – Arian Foster is a worth favourite this year. He plays for a good team (which means they are usually winning, which means they are usually running) and he seems a hardy sort (your pick can’t afford to miss snaps). Jamaal Charles is arguably the best back in the game, but will he get enough carries to lift the silverware? An interesting outside poke might be LeSean “Shady” McCoy. I fancy Philly to have a big year and Shady might be able to rack up plenty of put-the-game-to-bed yards.
Regular season receiving yards – I feel very strongly that Calvin “Megatron” Johnson will walk away with the title this year. He’s the clear number one receiver in the league right now (has Fotz actually got worse since his playoff heroics a few years ago) and he has a top QB throwing his way. Don’t be tempted to go with a TE this year (Gronk, Graham etc) – the league will have caught up and the days of monster receiving games from the position are over. Dez Bryant might be an interesting outsider at big prices. He’s a spolit little brat, but he has the talent to put up monster number if he can A) stay on the field, B) stay out of prison and B) persuade Romo/Garrett/Witten to throw to him.
Defensive rookie of the year – This isn’t a market I’ve given particular attention to this year, so will just give some general gambling advice rather than a pick. Fans and voters love gaudy stats, so I’d be tempted to go with either an edge rusher (sacks) or a gambling ball-hawking defensive back (picks).
Offensive rookie of the year – I really like Andrew Luck in this market. He is just a better QB than RGIII and I expect him to put the ridiculous draft debate over who should go #1 with a sterling performance. If you fancy an interest bet, don’t sleep on Russell Wilson. He may only be 5’11″ (tiny for a QB) but my college QB projection stats grade him out as one of the best rookies in years. He could do some damage for a Seattle team.
