Chelsea to Shine in the Big One

In terms of big games, this is right up there. If Chelsea beat Spurs, that’s pretty much 3rd place boxed off for the Blues, putting Arsenal in a great position to steal the coveted 4th spot for AVB’s boys and secure their 16th consecutive Champions League qualification at the expense of the their bitter North London rivals. So putting all the possible top four permutations aside, let’s just focus on tonight’s game, and determine what the value bets are for this crunch tie.

Between them, Chelsea and Spurs have conceded 78 goals this season and score 130. In their reverse fixture in October, Chelsea took all three points, winning 4-2, in a game heated game that racked up 5 yellow cards. However, there is much more on the line this time around as both teams know just how important securing three points is to them. Chelsea will be looking to continue their impressive form which has seen them win four out of their last five games, and Spurs will be desperately trying to shake off the perception that many have of them being the choke-artists of the top-5 in English football. If they can get a win, they will silence many of their critics and the 2/1 you can get in places will be slashed very quickly come 10pm tonight I can tell you.

So the question is should Spurs be backed at 2/1 to secure top 4? No. I don’t think so. People say that Spurs are choke-artists and they don’t know how to get the job done. I’m one of those people. They are 10/3 to win the game tonight, with Chelsea being a shade odds-on. For me, backing Chelsea at 19/20 is a smart move. We always see the money come in late for games like this, and I’m putting it on record now that if the general price for Chelsea come 7.30pm tonight stays at around 10/11 or even drifts I’ll come to work dressed as a woman next week and we’ll tweet the pictures onto the Star Spreads Twitter page, which you can find here.

We’re a sports spread-betting company, so let’s find some spread-betting value. (Sure why else would you be reading this?)

Mike Dean takes charge tonight, and he’s not card-shy. He’s averaged just under four yellow cards per game this season, and with so much on the line tonight, I expect a couple of tasty challenges early on that might force Dean to dish out a few cards to try and settle things down. You can buy at 58 with the other firms but anyone who has read the blog can ask the traders for a point inside and I’m sure you’ll be looked after.

Two other bets I’m going to have for a bit of an interest are a buy of Juan Mata goal rush at 4, as I can’t have Torres on my mind and I think Demba Ba is in for a stinker. Mata scored a brace at White Hart Late back in October and I expect him to get on the score sheet once again. (One goal will make up 10, m/u 20, m/u 33 and so on.)

I’ll also be looking to sell the time of the 4th match goal at 82 for a couple of quid. It’s one of them with not much down-side and plenty of up-side if the goals start coming in thick and fast.

So, there’s my thoughts on how tonight might pan out and where I’ll be putting my money. With a bit of luck, the shrewdies start backing Chelsea into 4/5 soon so even if they get gubbed by Spurs, I won’t look like a fool next week!

Tonight’s fixed-odds bets –

Chelsea @ 19/20 (They will be shorter come kick-off!)

Tonight’s spread-bets –

Buy total bookings at 58 for £5 (Don’t think will make up less than 50)

Buy Juan Mata goal rush at 4 for £10 (I’m confident about this one)

Sell 4th match goal at 82 for £5 (Goal-fest please)

Happy punting!