French Open Preview
French Open Betting Preview
Sadly Andy Murray will not be gracing the red clay of Roland Garros this year. He has had to withdraw because of the same back injury that forced him out in Italy last week. The world number two has decided to avoid the risk of further injury; hopefully he’ll be around for the grass court swing starting at Queen’s in June.
The French Open is also this year without Juan Martin del Potro, who revealed last week that he was suffering from a virus.
In this betting blog I’ll examine the chances of the remaining “Big Three”: Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer.
Rafael Nadal. There’s not a lot more that can be said about Rafa. Unquestionably the greatest clay court player of all-time, in 2013 he bids for his eighth French Open title. He seems to have been around forever, and it’s amazing to think he’s still only 26! He has had problems with his knees however. The tendonitis that forced him out of most of the greass court season in 2009 has never really gone away, and it’d be a brave man to lump on him at 4-6 or shorter. The clay court events are much easier on Rafa’s knees than the hard courts of Australia and the US, because the surface allows him to slide to make balls rather than pounding his joints. Having said that, he’s not 1.01 to make it through the tournament uninjured. Having said that he’s won seven of the last eight renewals and he’s only 4-6. Conclusion: no bet.
Novak Djokovic. In 2011 it looked like Nole was poised to take over the tennis world. He won three of the four grand and played such good tennis that Boris Becker was moved to say, “(his year) may not be the best statistically, but he’s beaten Federer, he’s beaten Nadal, he’s beaten everybody that came around to challenge him in the biggest tournaments in the world.” His 2012 was a little bit of regression to the mean, but he still won the Australian and reached the finals of two other slams. There’s a bit of 2-1 about and I think it must be a bet. He’s as fit as a fiddle and has shown he can stare down Rafa and beat him on the biggest of stages. Conclusion: bet.
Roger Federer. This will be a quick one. I know the 20-1 looks tempting. I know it looks like a huge price for the greatest of all time (G.O.A.T.). I know he’s won a French Open before. But don’t forget he needed Soderling to knock out Rafa that year. He’s not going to beat Rafa and Nole in the same event. He’s 31 and he’s over the hill. He might mop up one more weak Wimbledon before the new boys come through, but he isn’t winning this year’s French Open. Conclusion: I’d rather buy a lottery ticket.
My Tip. If you fancy a “live” outsider, back David Ferrer at 33-1.
