Tony T: Belgium Grand Prix Preview

The 2013 F1 season resumes this Sunday after its one month summer break at historic Spa-Francorchamps in Belgium, and last year’s winner, Jenson Button, has no hope of repeating his 2012 victory. But who will win?

The first half of the season has seen five different drivers winning races from four different teams. Adding up the betting percentages of the generally available prices for Vettel, Hamilton, Raikkonen, Alonso and Rosberg, this gives you a book percentage of almost 100%. So your friendly high street bookie cannot see a winner outside these 5 drivers, and I cannot disagree.

But I think we can narrow this down even further. Fernando Alonso’s Ferrari hasn’t won since his home Grand Prix in Spain 5 races ago. Since then he has only two podium finishes. The car has not progressed as many have thought when upgrades have been fitted to the car, and for most of the season the car has not qualified that well, starting most of his races from the third or fourth row of the grid. The quality of Alsono is that his race finishes have in the majority of cases been better than is start grid position.

Both Mercedes drivers, Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg, have won races this season. This in a season many thought would be very testing for the team. The team have qualified well in many of the races. But while the team are on an upward curve there is still the question of heavy tyre wear, especially on a high speed track, and Spa is a fast track with many sweeping turns. This year Mercedes have won races at Monaco, Britain and Hungary. Monaco and Hungary are tracks in which it is difficult to overtake and in each of these races the pole sitter went onto win the race. The British Grand Prix was the race when there were six tyre failures and the interventions of two safety cars. The race boiled down to a seven lap sprint at the end following the safety car to recover Vettel’s Red Bull, which was stranded on the pit straight.

Kimi Raikkonen’s performances have improved since his mid-season blip. Consecutive second places in the last two Grand Prix have seen him moved to second in the Driver’s Championship. The upgrades introduced to the Lotus for the British Grand Prix appear to be having the desired effect. And with talk about a possible return to Ferrari next season, a win here and consistent performances for the rest of the season could see Raikkonen replace to consistently disappointing Felipe Massa. And let us not forget Kimi Raikkonen is a four time winner of this race.

This leaves World Champion Sebastian Vettel. Consistency is the key word here. Four races wins and a further three podium finishes see Vettel leading the current Driver’s Championship by 38 points. He has been the driver to beat for the last three and a half years. With Mark Webber leaving at the end of the season the team can concentrate on Vettel alone.

I believe the race to be between Kimi Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel, the improving car and the consistent performer. As I write there is 7/1 about Raikkonen winning the race, with the each-way paying three places.

These are solely the views of the author. Any spread prices quoted are indicative and as always prices are subject to fluctuation. REMEMBER YOU CAN WIN OR LOSE MORE THAN YOUR ORIGINAL STAKE. BET RESPONSIBLY. LICENSED IN IRELAND